Wednesday, November 30, 2005

Quidam - remains a mystery

Quidam: a nameless passer-by, a solitary figure lingering on a street corner, a person rushing past. It could be anyone, anybody. Someone coming, going, living in our anonymous society. A member of the crowd, one of the silent majority. The one who cries out, sings and dreams within us all...

I was hoping to write a rave review on Cirque du Soleil - Quidam but unfortunately I am disappointed to say that the circus did not quite meet my expectations! Not that it was not entertaining and at times breathtaking, just that the acts were few and far between.


Having burnt a hole in my pocket on tickets for half my family, I was expecting to be blown away, however, I just found myself laughing on cheap but highly efficient "impromptu" onstage audience-involvement comedic routines.

Gimmicks! That's what I kept thinking to myself throughout the evening. The circus cost me an arm and a leg and it was nothin more than watchin opera with performers ballet dancing around and swinging on ropes.

BUT wait a minute... At the end of the day it was French. Sophistication is what I paid for... I totally missed the point! I have a free ticket (courtesy of my boss), anyone interested? (coz I'm not)

Tuesday, November 15, 2005

Failure breeds Success!?

Last year... the listing aspirations of Link REIT were singlehandedly dashed by an elderly woman by the name of Lo Siu Lan.

This year... Link REIT is back!

The new deal structure also incorporates "withdrawal rights." These will enable retail investors to secure a full refund if there is a legal challenge to the Reit between the publication of the public offering prospectus and the day of listing. - FinanceAsia

Whole fiasco would have been avoided if the govt had put in a clause the first time around... but we all learn from our mistakes dont we?

So how is it goin to be like this time? Havin fallen flat on its face, what will the govt do to ensure that its baby project (a role model for the HK Airport's privitization) succeeds at birth?

EVERYTHIN! HK govt just cannot afford to be put to shame on its second round.

Personally, I'm not too keen on the offering. FinanceAsia sums up my sentiment quite well:

One of investors' key decisions will, therefore, be how quickly and effectively Link management will be able to raise rental yields and how close they can ever truly come to commercial levels. One major constraint is the fact that a portion the Reit's portfolio is rented by schools and welfare centres... ...Because Reits distribute all their income as dividends, an increase in short-term rates has a material impact on the bottom line thanks to increasing interest expense. It also makes it more difficult to find yield accretive acquisitions as the cost of debt capital also rises. - FinanceAsia

BUT the whole "Cannot fail again" concept just makes the offering worthwhile to look at

Let me talk myself into subscribing...
- World's largest IPO by a property trust
- First listing of its kind in HK - should attract funds looking for stable returns and portfolio diversification
- Surprisingly interbank rates are softer (hhmmm makes you wonder why banks are lending short-dated money aggresively *wink wink nudge nudge*)
- 5% discount for retailers (placement? IPO? I'm not really goin for alot of units, so IPO!)
- Guaranteed annualised distribution yield of 5.53% at Mar 06
- Expected distributed yield of 6.00% at Mar 07
- Better than puttin your money in the bank, on rising interest rates? Maybe! Any capital gains?

YES! Just becoz the govt is listing it AGAIN!!!!
Hell with the analysis... I'm SUBSCRIBING!

Sunday, November 06, 2005

Beautiful Minds

Quick thought...

Cant help reflecting on my private lunch at the China Club last Friday with the great (JF) financial minds that played a part in setting Hong Kong up as the world-class financial services centre that it is today

These unpretentious gentlemen might come across as "old" compared with the savvy 30/40 year old bankers of our time, but they have excellent analytical skills (plus with the amount of experience under their belts, they put most to shame) and not to mention a great deal of humour. This lunch was truly inspirational.

Their formula to get to the top: hardwork + time management! + alil luck!

Anyways... another thought... Avian Flu worries are overblown. With 0/100 chances of it happening, the market is overreactin with the sellin. If there should be a pandemic, it would be global and not restricted just to the Asian region, so the discountin is pretty unfair (guess it is becoz the market is expectin this place to be the origin of the H-H transmission). As the markets here (apart from Japan) have corrected quite substantially esp. Hong Kong (though interest rates also played a big part), it is a good time to start lookin at bargains.


HOWEVER as outbreaks are continuously reported in the media, we should still see more weakness. BUT once the media's attention dies down and the market finds some upward momentum, I would suggest jumpin into the market.

In the case of a mutation and the markets tumble, BUY BUY and BUY more!

Wednesday, November 02, 2005

Democracy a Joke?

Sustained growth in India would be all the more impressive if the government could pass its reforms. But the road is blocked by politics - The Economist

The statement accurately sums up the current state of affairs in India. It is a sad fact that India is the world's largest democracy but has one of the highest illiteracy rates in the world. Which basically means that Indians are free to make their own choices but arent educated enough to make the right and informed ones.

Probably that is the exact reason why, for the past 5 decades India has had incompetent leaders leading the populous yet young and potentially highly productive nation. Disappointing locals and foreigners alike.

It is a vicious cycle that keeps feeding itself. India for awhile did see its ray of hope in Mr. Manmohan Singh, the accidental hero. However, given their coalition with the Communist Party, sadly there is little he can do (what an irony).

Much needed reforms are not coming through and FDI is just rushing into next door neighbour, China. Chinese leaders have a vision for the future, whereas, Indian leaders dream of the past, the RAJ.

Unfortunately, not much can be done. It will take this young nation some time to realise the power of democracy and how their choices can make a difference. Educated few need to crack along if they want a prosperous future. Perhaps a place to start could be the political arena itself.