Sunday, May 21, 2006

China's Jewel


BOC is aiming a listing on the 1st of June, and this IPO is HOT!

Reminds me of the time when Tom.com was listed... the queues were neverending... and so was the fall in the share price.

However, your money's safe with China's second-largest lender. It'll give you decent returns, being listed at 2.2x PB, while CCB's trading at what 3x? But I believe CCB deserves a slight premium... it's the best managed state bank in terms of the returns it's getting on its equity and assets.

Anyway... I personally do not think that people should subscribe to the stock, esp on margin. I know I know, recent IPOs have performed phenomenally, but I dont think there's any rush just yet!

Here I go... why lock up your funds for a week or pay interest when you can get the shares off the mkt on the first day?

I mean look at the size of it... it's bigger than CCB... it's HUGE... you think there would be substantial buying interest to lift up the shares more than 10%? Keep in mind that the counter needs to rise 5% before you breakeven.

If you decide not to leverage, then what's the point really! Yeah , I'm sure you would be gettin atleast one board lot... that's the least the Chinese state bank would do to keep everyone happy... so that's ya best bet!

So you think that those who get their one lots wont be sellin them? Under the current market conditions, I'm sure the moms & pops would be happy to just let go... hey would buy them a decent meal... why not?

Oh yeah... the fund managers would be there to grab the stock huh?! Dont they have their portfolios full of CCB & BoCom already?

Hey dont get me wrong, I like the bank! I mean after the success of China's other lenders, I am sure this one wont disappoint anyone... I mean it cant afford to, having lost the race to CCB
*Hint hint* to Goldman and UBS

But I just dont think there is a need for the long lines... just chill and wait for it to list.