Friday, August 03, 2007

Blood on the St

The market tumbled 975 points intraday on Wednesday before closing down 729 pts; how I openly wished that it would fall below 1,000 so that I cld brag in my later years that I witnessed it. "It happended on the 1st of Aug"

Market behavior is so facsinating. Only last week we were having a prolonged party and today everyone's sobered up! Werent this party supposed to have ended when Bear Stearn's hedge funds went bust? How did we manage to reach all time highs subsequently?
I remember reading an article in the Newsweek - The Spooky Echoes of '87, and discussing it with a senior Director. His response was, "You can never predict the peak. Though there are sure signs to watch out for, if there is a one day drop of 5 percent, SELL. Otherwise keep riding it, as staying liquid is more painful than taking a 10 percent loss"
So I guess the broader market shared his views, and everybody just rode. Now every bloody paper and every bloody Tom Dick & Harry's talking about it; on hindsight everyone's a genius! On CNBC Squawk Box, how people were praising the American consumer, and now every motherf***er is fearing recession.
Actually, even I was singing the liquidity song and today I have to explain to clients the concept of credit crunch. Sigh, we think we're professionals but we're all a bunch of herds. Although, I'm sure if I had a Sell call after the Bear Stearn episode I would not have heard the end of it - today I feel like I'm not managing smart money.
Anyways, this time I'm going to stick with my prediction that the mkt will continue to consolidate, and I would only be a net buyer below 21,000 - aint gonna jump in and kill my buying power before that. Rather be a coward than a brave fool! Perhaps I will get the chance to see a more than 1,000 pt intraday drop - you never know...